Here is my short thesis, which I’m currently executing on.
Part 1 : Monetary Tabula Rasa
Our entire economic system relies on the fact that asset prices have to rise. Pension, Insurances, Rates, everything is built on the premise that prices have to go up.
To protect the system, Central bankers, financial players & governments are ( knowingly (or unknowingly)) colluding to do whatever it takes to keep all the assets price up.
For the last year or so, I’ve been heavily involved with all kinds of small-scale commodity producers ( by small scale, I mean roughly less than 250’000 USD net profit per year)
To give you an idea, I dabble with two dozen commodities or commodity-like producers, such as manganese, cocoa, water, rare earth, avocado, solar energy, etc…
Here are my observations
They fail to understand the ruthless commodity game they are in.
The other day I was speaking with one of our SACA students that just finished his study and was about to start to find a job in the commodity industry. I was doing my usual spiel: the competition is fierce out there if you want to find a job in commodity trading, you need to be remarkable.
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Commodity prices tend to go through extended periods of boom and bust, known as supercycles.
A supercycle is characterized by a prolonged period of rising commodity prices, supported by population growth and infrastructure expansion.
As you can see from the below chart, we have decades between each peak.
How to differentiate a trader from a broker?
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